I want to preface this commentary with an acknowledgment that an administration without effective political opposition operates without a true understanding of what it feels like to face off against alternatives.
That being said, I am truly getting a kick out of the bloggers (three in particular) that are getting into a lather of fury over the popularity of both Vision Vancouver and Gregor Robertson amongst the municipal beat reporters around town.
The frustration that they are spewing only confirms that the Vision Vancouver juggernaut is real, in as much as is possible within the municipal political realm.
I don’t have the energy to craft a well-thought out, cogent post on why that juggernaut exists, nor do I have to quite frankly. Rather, I would like to perform a political brain dump on the state of Vision Vancouver and the rest of the civic political scene at the halfway point of the term.
- Gregor Robertson has a popularity that is well ahead of Sam Sullivan, Larry Campbell and Philip Owen at the halfway point of their terms. He has a likeability factor that goes beyond his looks, garnering a genuine affinity from voters that hasn’t been seen in Vancouver since the days of Mike Harcourt’s time as Mayor.
- The Green Agenda, which has been labeled by some as fluff, is resonating with residents. Stratcom’s polling overwhelmingly demonstrated that it is the issue that has most effectively pierced the public consiousness of support. It may be an issue that is close to Robertson’s heart and for which he built his vision for Vancouver around, but it is also politically astute for tapping into a sentiment that has a natural inclination within this city regardless of politics.
- There could very well be several vacancies once the Vision incumbents make their plans known to the party over the coming six months. There are a number of intriguing possibilities that have expressed interest in the party, and who could further solidify the party as a moderate resting place for those that are tired out by the polarizing political past of Vancouver. Incumbents will be asked to pull their weight in preparing for the election campaign, but are ultimately likely to be protected from challenges
- The COPE negotiations are largely at a standstill, and in my estimation, it is COPE that will be lucky to secure any kind of agreement with Vision rather than the other way around. So while there is no doubt that a clear path on the left of the spectrum is desirable with regards to the Mayor, COPE is really in no position politically or financially to run their own. Thus, if they are once again able to protects two spots for Council and a couple for School Board, they should take the deal and run. Vision is in an enviable position in negotiating with an organization that barely has enough money or interest to sustain an internal staff person.
- The NPA, from those that I have spoken to who regularly attend the moribund meetings this fledgling organziation puts on, is really having a difficult time attracting any kind of interest from potential Mayoral candidates. The overwhelming consensus is that Anton is going to be the choice by default, as even Ian Robertson is rumoured to be backing away from his plans to run for the nomination. Polling shows that Anton is even less known than a guy like Tung Chan, believe it or not, an individual who if he decides to run anywhere is likely to hang his hat on competing against Ujjal Dosanjh in Vancouver South. From what I have been told, the Tories are holding that riding for him and pushing him to make a decision sooner rather than later.
- Vision needs a big idea to launch their second term re-election campaign. They have had some moderate success in their key areas that are clearly popular with the public, but need to begin to think about the next phase of their plans that is going to capture the public’s imagination. Using the endowment fund as leverage to begin a revolution in terms of affordable housing is one idea that I think should carefully be considered by Vision’s leadership.
- Without a viable Mayoral candidate, any hopes for the NPA to expand their presence on Council is a lost cause. What is interesting is what is going to happen when Anton steps up to the plate and relinquishes her spot as a Council hopeful. If she loses, which is more than likely in a face-off with Gregor Robertson, the NPA will be minus-one Council seat, and it is extremely unlikely that anyone of significance will have the guts or the capability to emerge victorious on an Anton-led slate.
- Robertson would be well placed to start thinking about using his political capital to better advance issues of national concern to all municipalities. Whether it is musing about constitutional recognition for municipalities, or a different funding formula for the way that cities are administered, or even a national housing movement that pushes hard on the federal government, the notion of legacy is wrapped within these complex and difficult issues.
- A star recruit with name recognition is contemplating giving up his time and his devotion to his ridiculous earnings to run for a spot, although he has no interest in competing for nomination. The name is worthy of excitement, but the demands for a spot on the slate without any kind of effort is unlikely to happen.
- The stories that emanate from within City Hall’s bureacracy should no longer be necessary at this point in the term, and greater attention to stability is well advised. That being said, I don’t have any misconceptions about the public finding these hirings and firings of interest so long as the city is being run smoothly, which it is. So, I guess I am suggesting that the bloggers that are obsessed with engineering the downfall of the current Mayor are unlikely to get any more fodder for their “sky is falling” commentaries about City Hall.
That’s it for now folks. Off to dim sum…see you tomorrow with our usually scheduled Monday morning commentary.
