It is unlikely that the Premier will be able to bask in the afterglow of the Olympics.
This article by the Globe and Mail’s local stalwart Ian Bailey is interesting for the possibilities it outlines for Mayor Gregor Robertson, but far more intriguing for analysis of how the Olympics are unlikely to add life to the career of Premier Gordon Campbell.
This could be the beginning of a political arc upwards for Robertson. Now while I would argue that for the purposes of re-election the Mayor’s profile is more than adequate, I can also see the global media propelling Robertson to a new status within his own city, province and country. We are all familiar with the typical Canadian syndrome – paying more attention to home grown talent only after the rest of the world notices them.
But with Campbell, I foresee a far different scenario – one that ends prematurely for a man who just claimed that “he isn’t planning on quitting politics after the Olympics.”
Campbell is of course making this claim because it is the only thing he can do within a month of this province’s largest event in history. Lame duck status is not the kind of filter that Campbell wants to have the world viewing his every utterance, appearance and opening through.
I have spoken to many close to the BC Liberal fold recently, and a common opinion is that an ego on the scale of Campbell’s would not be able to walk away from politics before reaching his 10th anniversary in office – May 17, 2011.
I’m not so sure.
First, the HST is turning into an unbearable weight around the neck of Campbell that no previous political decision has ever come close to rivalling.
Secondly, the Olympics – particularly when it comes to finances – will be unlikely to be politically advantageous for the Premier or Finance Minister Colin Hansen, whose next budget, like last year’s, will again strike fear in the hearts of every British Columbian.
Finally, the caucus hopefuls – Kevin Falcon and Rich Coleman in particular – are getting very impatient, as both have been amassing leadership organizations for the past 3-5 years.
And now I have received a few emails that Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts is quietly preparing for the day that Premier Campbell announces his departure. More specifically, a major staff shakeup in the Mayor’s office as of January 1 has indicated to many political observers in the know that Watts is building her organization in a more formal and structured way.
Something that I will be watching very carefully within the Surrey political scene is how the non-party “Surrey First” will survive without the woman from which the coalition was built around. There are no names on that Council that are untouchable without the political anchor of Watts in the mix.
Couple this with a Carole Taylor run that at this point seems inevitable, and you have the makings of a very interesting year in the race to become BC’s next – and unelected – premier.
Come May, Gordon’s swan song will launch a fierce battle that should be quite a show.
