He went out on his own terms instead of waiting to get embarrassed, in spite of what internal polling numbers released after the fact are saying.

The fact that 17 MLAs signed and delivered a letter of non-confidence against him was dire, but the prospect of having factions actively working to undermine him at the upcoming party convention in Penticton might have been the nail in his coffin.

These points have been confirmed for me as the two reasons that Campbell pulled the plug on what was expected to be a longer tenure as Premier.

He might be saying that it was because of his dismal public approval rating, but he has been unbelieveably unpopular for over a year now, and it never seemed to faze him.

I mean, you don’t go out and hire a veteran like Belle Puri as your new press secretary (she was completely caught off guard) and Paul Taylor as your new Chief of Staff – both the week before – or spend $240,000 on a slickly produced address showcasing upcoming income tax cuts, if you are on planning on making such an announcement.

This is why for a number of reasons, I find these numbers very suspect.

From what I am told, many of the party brass within the party wouldn’t even be privy to this kind of information.  Why?

Because it is a number that is kept top secret amongst the party executive, the members of which make a concerted effort to keep these results private until their release at the actual convention.

Here’s how it works.

The party convention was slated to take place in Penticton in two weeks.

At the delegate selection meetings of ridings across the province, delegate are also asked whether they support a leadership review.

These numbers are compiled and kept under lock and key – particularly far from the prying eyes of political operatives and caucus members – to preserve the sanctity of the membership’s will.

There were many in the caucus that while silent in the meetings that Campbell ran with an iron fist, were actively working on ensuring that enough delegates got elected that would cast a vote of non-confidence against the leader.

84 per cent, in consideration of public approval ratings that stood at 9 per cent, recall campaigns that will picking up steam, and a general view from most observers that the party was burdened by Gordo more than any other factor at this piont, seems like a bogus and manipulated result to me.

Like all of the potential leadership candidates were saying after the press conference, today is about the Premier and his legacy.  By the same logic, the party wanted to hand the press ammunition to send off the most hated man in the province with as much good will as could be mustered.

But like Christy Clark said in the above-linked CTV video on the resignation, Campbell did not look like a man that wanted to leave.

The media might be bewildered as to whether he was jumped or pushed, but the complete 180 that was pulled in the past week should put those kinds of questions to rest.

Campbell went out on his own terms before his own party embarrassed him publicly.

More later on the prospects of the BC Liberals to pull their electoral fortunes out of the fire.

• I obviously ruffled one former mayoral Cheif of Staff’s feathers with Friday’s post, inspiring this lacklustre rebuttal.  Notice how Daniel conveniently ignores my points about EcoDensity being prepared for IN ADVANCE of a Council vote in much the same way as the Hornby bike lane was, and provides no explanation except for this:  “He even goes back in time and tries to redesign history by incorrectly alleging that EcoDensity was handled by staff in the same manner as the separated bike lanes.”  I anxiously await the promised future post on the subject for Fontaine to feverishly spin the virtues his former boss’ baby.  Oh yeah, and one more thing, Daniel: your allusions to future revelations are always humourous…so let’s clear something up about your constant accusations about my relationship to the Mayor’s office.  I do indeed talk to people in the Mayor’s office, Vision Vancouver offices, and electeds on the Park Board and City Council…this is something I have never tried to hide.  Why?  Well, because a) this is a political blog where my political loyalties are very obvious and b) they are in the thick of things and I like to try to pry information out of them.  On that front I am not always successful, but for the sake of this website, from time to time I have inquiries.

• I have definitely graduated from my former fandom of professional wrestling to MMA.  Nonetheless, the WWE didn’t just pull out of a scheduled event in Vancouver for nothing.  The City of Vancouver says it is not anti-combat sports, but it is putting up barriers that make it a) a bureaucratic nightmare b) a costly affair for any promoter and c) a process that directs organizations like the UFC and WWE to look at other options (in the case of WWE, they headed to Washington, where UFC is not adverse to moving into a city like Edmonton or Calgary for a third annual PPV Canadian event, according to my conversations with UFC Director of Operations Tom Wright).  I understand there is a liability issue that the City needs to insulate itself from when it comes to protecting taxpayers.  But after a successful UFC 115, you’d think they’d be willing to negotiate with a little more flexibility.  Based on recent meetings that happened with UFC officials over the past few weeks, however, that doesn’t appear to be the case.

• Seriously, with the way that Minister Rich Coleman has played games with the City of Vancouver in recent months on the social housing component of the Millennium Water development, I can’t see why the City wouldn’t use the time frame of the casino being built as a bigger bargaining chip.  If non-profit groups can benefit, or at the very least if the City can get some better cooperation on a range of issues with the Province, then it might very well be worth it, particularly with the state of the government these days.

• Once again, I think that the NDP caucus Carole James detractors are utter idiots, and handing the BC Liberals a free pass to get back into the game.  This article seems to suggest that Gordon Campbell might be invigourated to stay to fight a fourth mandate as a result of the NDP’s ever-emerging implosion.  But if I am one of the people that actually has a measure of influence with Campbell and who is still interested in the fate of the entire party (and I know of at least a few of those types who stop in to read this site), I would be saying “Look, they are giving us an opportunity to change everything.  So let’s allow a few more disgruntled NDP MLAs to publicly resign, go through these recall campaigns, and then let a new leader emerge as a person of the people by initiating an immediate referendum on the HST.”  Gordon’s ego is unlikely to allow him to arrive at the same conclusion without a little (or a lot of) cajoling.  But I do think it will happen nonetheless.

• I have a feeling that this public consultation process over the budget, which is currently forecast to have a deficit of $20.6 million, is going to be very political.  The City would be well advised to look at their Metro Vancouver partners and find out what kind of deficits they are encountering, because rest assured, most municipalities are in this financial position.  I am interested to see if the NPA can attract more than 200 people to their fundraising dinner on Wednesday (an event, by the way, that no one should be fooled about when it comes to that $185 ticket price – because they are just giving away tons of free tickets for, including many politically active youth), which will indicate to what extent they can organize.  Then again, with the way their candidate selection meeting is shaping up, maybe the crowds that are attracted to come out really will be concerned public members instead of…naw, I won’t go down that road again.

• The kind of political gridlock the Mayor of Toronto will encounter after winning is why I prefer the party systems that are in place in Vancouver and Montreal.  Locally, Gregor Robertson et al. were elected on a platform, and now they are implementing that platform that garnered them a mandate.  That is the way it should be…and the reason why I absolutely abhor minority governments.

• Speaking of the Toronto Mayoral race, it looks like a dead heat.  Unlike what people like my friend Warren Kinsella was saying, I think that Rocco Rossi’s exit from the race really gave George Smitherman the lift that he needed to pull even with Rob Ford.  Joe Pantalone currently looks like Toronto’s version of Ralph Nader, however, which should be very concerning in the Smitherman camp.  The bright side of the eqaution is that less than half of Pantalone’s backers (47.5%) declare their support as firm, which means that Smitherman will benefit from those scared enough of Ford’s potential victory to change their vote.  The next week is going to be very interesting.

OK, off to meetings folks.  Have a great day.

The BC Government should remember that behind each of these students, there are two parents concerned, angry and confused by the budget shortfalls being encountered by school boards across the province.

With the vote on the Vancouver School Board (VSB) proposed $18.12 million in budget cuts for fiscal 2010-11, the heat is rising on a provincial government led by a rookie Minister being thrown to the wolves by Premier Gordon Campbell.

Yesterday, over 500 parents and kids packed the John Oliver high school gym to rant against a provincial government that so far doesn’t have the guts to be honest with the amount of funding AND EXPENSES that are being passed on to school board across BC.

Speaking about the politics of the situation for a second, I interpret the shifting of the messaging from the Minister as a sign that the BC Liberals are beginning to realize that it is them rather than the VSB, or any individual school board for that matter, that is going to bare the brunt of the fallout.

First she was spouting off about how BC schools were getting the most funding per capita in history.  Then it was about how there was waste and mismangement within the administration of the VSB.  Now the latest line is about how student enrollment is down significantly, and that is why “we need to do things differently.“  Really?  But I thought that there was more funding than ever…

The fact that North Vancouver, Richmond and other districts are facing the same kinds of crunches mean that trying to attack one particular school board – the one that has been the most publicly vocal against the cuts – doesn’t hold much weight anymore.

Just as Housing Minister Rich Coleman finally came around to the fact that funding homeless shelters is the right thing to do (both politically and based on principles), I have a feeling that the province might just cave on an issue that is poised to galvanize parents across the province…and not in a good way for a government on the verge of padding the coffers with billions of revenues from the dreaded HST.

Then again, these guys seem to have all of their collective heads up Gordon Campbell’s prostate these days, and that is a pretty dark place to be in these days.

This next week is going to be interesting to see what the power of the people can do to sway government.  I think that Bill Vanderzalm might have begun a little to late to find reprieve from the the “harmony” that the government is about to introduce.  But when it comes to parents, I think the province is going to have to bend or face a wrath like they haven’t seen since coming to office.

It is unlikely that the Premier will be able to bask in the afterglow of the Olympics.

This article by the Globe and Mail’s local stalwart Ian Bailey is interesting for the possibilities it outlines for Mayor Gregor Robertson, but far more intriguing for analysis of how the Olympics are unlikely to add life to the career of Premier Gordon Campbell.

This could be the beginning of a political arc upwards for Robertson.  Now while I would argue that for the purposes of re-election the Mayor’s profile is more than adequate, I can also see the global media propelling Robertson to a new status within his own city, province and country.  We are all familiar with the typical Canadian syndrome – paying more attention to home grown talent only after the rest of the world notices them.

But with Campbell, I foresee a far different scenario – one that ends prematurely for a man who just claimed that “he isn’t planning on quitting politics after the Olympics.”

Campbell is of course making this claim because it is the only thing he can do within a month of this province’s largest event in history.  Lame duck status is not the kind of filter that Campbell wants to have the world viewing his every utterance, appearance and opening through.

I have spoken to many close to the BC Liberal fold recently, and a common opinion is that an ego on the scale of Campbell’s would not be able to walk away from politics before reaching his 10th anniversary in office – May 17, 2011.

I’m not so sure.

First, the HST is turning into an unbearable weight around the neck of Campbell that no previous political decision has ever come close to rivalling.

Secondly, the Olympics – particularly when it comes to finances – will be unlikely to be politically advantageous for the Premier or Finance Minister Colin Hansen, whose next budget, like last year’s, will again strike fear in the hearts of every British Columbian.

Finally, the caucus hopefuls – Kevin Falcon and Rich Coleman in particular – are getting very impatient, as both have been amassing leadership organizations for the past 3-5 years.

And now I have received a few emails that Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts is quietly preparing for the day that Premier Campbell announces his departure.  More specifically, a major staff shakeup in the Mayor’s office as of January 1 has indicated to many political observers in the know that Watts is building her organization in a more formal and structured way.

Something that I will be watching very carefully within the Surrey political scene is how the non-party “Surrey First” will survive without the woman from which the coalition was built around.  There are no names on that Council that are untouchable without the political anchor of Watts in the mix.

Couple this with a Carole Taylor run that at this point seems inevitable, and you have the makings of a very interesting year in the race to become BC’s next – and unelected – premier.

Come May, Gordon’s swan song will launch a fierce battle that should be quite a show.