Tung Chan has become a hot political commodity in recent months.

For a man who the majority of Vancouverites have never heard of, Success CEO Tung Chan’s political appeal is at an all-time high.

On one end of the political spectrum, the federal Conservatives continue to make overtures to Chan about the possibility of running in Vancouver South against Liberal MP Ujjal Dosanjh, who as many readers are well aware, only won his seat last time around by 20 votes.  That riding has close to a population that is close to 50 per cent Chinese, making Chan an ideal candidate with profile within the community that makes the difference on deciding a winner and a loser.

On the other is the moribund NPA, which from what I have been able to piece together, is getting desperate with regards to finding a sacrificial lamb to go against Mayor Gregor Robertson and his 70 per cent approval rating.

If indeed Chan is at all interested in politics, taking the Vancouver South offer seems like a no-brainer.  Until of course you factor in the hectic and unforgiving travel schedule of a BC MP, and realize that the amount of individuals willing to make such a personal sacrifice are few and far between.  Rumour is that Chan is not naturally inclined to be able to handle the Ottawa/Vancouver commute week in, week out.

This then leaves the option of running to become Mayor.

Do I think that Chan has a hope in hell of giving Robertson any kind of challenge?  Absolutely not.

But here are the calculations that some the NPA brain-trust are making in their pursuit of Chan.

The most interesting aspect of the polling that came out months ago from Stratcom communications was not Vision Vancouver’s success so much as it was the NPA’s ability to maintain 30 per cent popularity.

This is quite astounding when you consider that the electeds like Suzanne Anton and Ian Robertson have been such disappointments when it comes to carrying the party banner rather than their own personal agendas forward.

Meaning that, while Chan would most likely be headed for defeat, he might have enough name recognition and appeal to Chinese and mainstream voters to carry three to four Council candidates across the finish line successfully.

For the NPA, the key leadership who have any understanding of potential political outcomes are contemplating this scenario as the best possible outcome (and no, that does not refer to the merry band of 6 who showed up the other night to the NPA special meeting advocating for a name change).

Regardless of whether it is Tung Chan or some other individual, my sources tell me that the Mayor’s race is a non-starter for the association, and that at this point, they are simply looking for an anchor that will give them back a foothold on Council. The desire to create hell for Robertson between 2011-2015 with a non-majority on Council (4 Vision, 4 NPA, 2 COPE, and Gregor) is a very attractive scenario to some.

The NPA, however, is a far way off of putting together the pieces to make this viable.  First, they need a group of Council candidates that are a lot more dynamic, engaging and known than the group they ended up with the last time around.

Secondly, they absolutely need to get away from the non-partisan BS and begin to craft policies that all candidates can not only adhere to, but actually sell to the public.

And lastly, they must find an individual with enough name recognition to give them a shot at beating some of Robertson’s group of incumbents, all the while knowing that that individual’s aspirations for Mayor must always be kept in check by reality.  In essence, they need to have someone of profile lend the party their name, while at the same time being prepared to lose from the moment they declare their candidacy.

There are going to be some very tough days ahead for the eternal optimists that are tasked with turning around this political Titanic.

Meanwhile, Tung Chan can sit back and revel in being Vancouver’s hottest political free agent.

]]> http://civicscene.ca/the-tung-chan-wild-card/feed 0 http://civicscene.ca/civic-political-reflections http://civicscene.ca/civic-political-reflections#comments Sun, 23 May 2010 20:43:31 +0000 Jonathan Ross http://civicscene.ca/?p=3632 I want to preface this commentary with an acknowledgment that an administration without effective political opposition operates without a true understanding of what it feels like to face off against alternatives.

That being said, I am truly getting a kick out of the bloggers (three in particular) that are getting into a lather of fury over the popularity of both Vision Vancouver and Gregor Robertson amongst the municipal beat reporters around town.

The frustration that they are spewing only confirms that the Vision Vancouver juggernaut is real, in as much as is possible within the municipal political realm.

I don’t have the energy to craft a well-thought out, cogent post on why that juggernaut exists, nor do I have to quite frankly.  Rather, I would like to perform a political brain dump on the state of Vision Vancouver and the rest of the civic political scene at the halfway point of the term.

• Gregor Robertson has a popularity that is well ahead of Sam Sullivan, Larry Campbell and Philip Owen at the halfway point of their terms.  He has a likeability factor that goes beyond his looks, garnering a genuine affinity from voters that hasn’t been seen in Vancouver since the days of Mike Harcourt’s time as Mayor.

• The Green Agenda, which has been labeled by some as fluff, is resonating with residents.  Stratcom’s polling overwhelmingly demonstrated that it is the issue that has most effectively pierced the public consiousness of support.  It may be an issue that is close to Robertson’s heart and for which he built his vision for Vancouver around, but it is also politically astute for tapping into a sentiment that has a natural inclination within this city regardless of politics.

• There could very well be several vacancies once the Vision incumbents make their plans known to the party over the coming six months.  There are a number of intriguing possibilities that have expressed interest in the party, and who could further solidify the party as a moderate resting place for those that are tired out by the polarizing political past of Vancouver.  Incumbents will be asked to pull their weight in preparing for the election campaign, but are ultimately likely to be protected from challenges

• The COPE negotiations are largely at a standstill, and in my estimation, it is COPE that will be lucky to secure any kind of agreement with Vision rather than the other way around.  So while there is no doubt that a clear path on the left of the spectrum is desirable with regards to the Mayor, COPE is really in no position politically or financially to run their own.  Thus, if they are once again able to protects two spots for Council and a couple for School Board, they should take the deal and run.  Vision is in an enviable position in negotiating with an organization that barely has enough money or interest to sustain an internal staff person.

• The NPA, from those that I have spoken to who regularly attend the moribund meetings this fledgling organziation puts on, is really having a difficult time attracting any kind of interest from potential Mayoral candidates.  The overwhelming consensus is that Anton is going to be the choice by default, as even Ian Robertson is rumoured to be backing away from his plans to run for the nomination.  Polling shows that Anton is even less known than a guy like Tung Chan, believe it or not, an individual who if he decides to run anywhere is likely to hang his hat on competing against Ujjal Dosanjh in Vancouver South.  From what I have been told, the Tories are holding that riding for him and pushing him to make a decision sooner rather than later.

• Vision needs a big idea to launch their second term re-election campaign.  They have had some moderate success in their key areas that are clearly popular with the public, but need to begin to think about the next phase of their plans that is going to capture the public’s imagination.  Using the endowment fund as leverage to begin a revolution in terms of affordable housing is one idea that I think should carefully be considered by Vision’s leadership.

• Without a viable Mayoral candidate, any hopes for the NPA to expand their presence on Council is a lost cause.  What is interesting is what is going to happen when Anton steps up to the plate and relinquishes her spot as a Council hopeful.  If she loses, which is more than likely in a face-off with Gregor Robertson, the NPA will be minus-one Council seat, and it is extremely unlikely that anyone of significance will have the guts or the capability to emerge victorious on an Anton-led slate.

• Robertson would be well placed to start thinking about using his political capital to better advance issues of national concern to all municipalities.  Whether it is musing about constitutional recognition for municipalities, or a different funding formula for the way that cities are administered, or even a national housing movement that pushes hard on the federal government, the notion of legacy is wrapped within these complex and difficult issues.

• A star recruit with name recognition is contemplating giving up his time and his devotion to his ridiculous earnings to run for a spot, although he has no interest in competing for nomination.  The name is worthy of excitement, but the demands for a spot on the slate without any kind of effort is unlikely to happen.

• The stories that emanate from within City Hall’s bureacracy should no longer be necessary at this point in the term, and greater attention to stability is well advised.  That being said, I don’t have any misconceptions about the public finding these hirings and firings of interest so long as the city is being run smoothly, which it is.  So, I guess I am suggesting that the bloggers that are obsessed with engineering the downfall of the current Mayor are unlikely to get any more fodder for their “sky is falling” commentaries about City Hall.

That’s it for now folks.  Off to dim sum…see you tomorrow with our usually scheduled Monday morning commentary.

Scenes like this will hopefully disappear from our beaches now that the new bylaw has been passed.

“I’m not doing it.  I’m not the guy who’s gonna lead the charge.  If [the] park board decided that they wanted to vote in favour of that, I would probably vote in favour of that because I don’t think smoking is a good thing for anybody.” – former NPA Park Board Commissioner Marty Zlotnik, June 2007

“What I might be supportive of is testing.  In other words, there may be a particular area of the beach that a family could go and know that in that area there is no smoking.” – current NPA Park Board Commissioner (and former chair) Ian Robertson, June, 2007

Last night the Park Board passed a groundbreaking decision to ban smoking in our parks and beaches.  After listening to the proceedings, and monitoring the overwhelmingly positive news coverage, this was a decision that was long overdue.

This step is the natural progression within a city that has moved on from systematically banning indoor and patio smoking.  The fact is that smoking within public spaces like beaches and parks – where families congregate for recreation – is simply not acceptable.

Park Board Commissioner Stuart MacKinnon had the line of the evening, when in his remarks he recounted an applicable saying his mother used to tell him:

“Your right to swing your fists ends at the tip of my nose.”

The decision, however, draws light to the fact that the previous NPA majority were not only gutless, but without any vision when it came to a clear political winner.

As can be seen from the above quotes, the ever elusive Marty Zlotnik was most likely too focused on his golf game (as it happens, Zlotnik was once again down in Arizona last night, preventing him from speaking about the First Tee Youth Golf program at last night’s meeting, which he had a lot to do with getting off the ground while he was a commissioner).

As for Ian Robertson, his wishy-washy position from a few years ago carried over to last night, where he didn’t even bother to show up for the decision.

Maybe if the former NPA park board majority had spent more time meeting and consulting with the community (check out page 7 for the contrast between then and now), maybe they would have understood that this is a political accomplishment that they could have benefitted from.

Regardless of who has done it however, this is something that will improve the quality of life in the City of Vancouver.  Period.

In fact, I am going to be bold and state that this might be the most significant and impactful decision made by this current incarnation of the Park Board thus far into the term.

Congratulations, ladies and gentlemen (minus the nowhere-to-be-found Robertson).

Scenes like this could disappear if the province has its way with the Vancouver School Board.

Last night on the news I saw coverage of band students playing a concert outside of the Vancouver School Board (VSB) offices, which for me really brought home the debate that is being waged right now between the BC Government and VSB.

Yes, I know that 190 full-time positions are on the chopping block.  But as a former member of a school strings program, and someone who continues to play music today, the prospect of losing all of the strings and band programs in the city is extremely troubling.

The gift of a music education to a child has immeasurable benefits.  Off the top of my head, I can name discipline, confidence, expansion of horizons, improved school performance, stress relief, fun, a sense of achievement, and improved self-esteem as some of the most tangible benefits that a child receives from learning music (although this list is much more comprehensive and has some amazing facts and figures).

I was fortunate enough to begin music outside of school, and enhanced my education through band in elementary and orchestra in high school.  But to many families, these school programs are the only access they have to offer their children the opportunity to play a musical instrument.

Anyways, this issue is about much more than band and string programs, so I shouldn’t get to caught up on this particular point.  I am willing to direct the full weight of my anger towards both Margaret MacDiarmid and lone NPA councillor Suzanne Anton, who in particular has shown how once again, politics trumps principle.

Readers will remember how Anton and Park Board Commissioner Ian Robertson waged a battle with the Park Board over their independence.  Whether it had to do with the hiring of a new General Manager, or the budget cuts as part of the services review, Anton was screaming bloody murder about how the docile Vision commissioners were towing the line and in the process, throwing away their autonomy.

Compare this to her reaction now with the way that the VSB is fighting back against the provincial government:

“I feel that a stream of constant whining that we get from the school board, from the school board chair, and obviously now from Coun. Reimer, does a great disservice to our school system. It’s sending out a message that our system is no good anymore and of course that’s not true. It’s sending out a message that we can’t possibly manage and that, of course, is not true.  There are tough times, but the school board has not really made tough decisions over the years and they do need to make tough decisions….they need to stop whining about it and they need to start boasting about the school system.”

So rallying against City Hall is OK because it has a Vision Vancouver administration, but fighting against backdoor, sneaky accounting by the province is “whining”?

What hypocrisy.

The school board should let this new “advisor” (aka political spinner) appointed by the Minister go through their books, and then make public how MSP premiums are being raised and downloaded, how teachers’ raises negotiated by the province are not receiving any additional new funding, and how carbon offset requirements are convoluted and expensive and also not covered in provincial transfers.

VSB Patti Bacchus needs to keep fighting the good fight and making the public aware of what the provincial government is doing to education in this province.

Suzanne Anton, on the other hand, should worry more about changing the name of her pathetic political party, and continue to hope that Vancouver voters are fooled by such a cynical ploy.

Not bloody likely.