I would like to offer some general reactions to the just released Justason Market Intelligence poll.

First of all, you have got to be kidding me with this:

If Frances Bula is correct and the NPA is indeed “looking to prove, desperately these days,” that “potential NPA candidates,…have a fighting chance to beat Vision Vancouver,” then I think that by all means they should continue to use these results, and this question in particular, as their enticement.

Never mind the general public – there is a significant number of NPA supporters and members that don’t consider Suzanne Anton a viable candidate.

Furthermore, I just made a call to a few members of the Vision executive who have assured me that the internal polling that they are seeing tells a far different story.

I am no pollster, so I am in position to decipher whether the Justason poll is more accurate than any other.

But I do know this – Vision brass and decision makers are salivating at the chance to run Gregor Robertson head to head against Suzanne Anton.

If this “statistical tie” that is described by Justason and breathlessly promoted by City Caucus is the star that the NPA landscape is pinning their hopes on, then the next election will be a fun one for those working to secure another Vision Vancouver victory.

With regards to some of the other Justason findings, there are few points that need to be made for context.

The poll states that “disapproval now stands at 57% for the municipal government’s handling of Olympic Village (up 14 points from 43% since August).  More than one-in three (37%) now “strongly” disapprove.”

But this poll was taken between November 12-18, which does not fully take into account the fact that the OV has now been put into receivership through Ernst & Young – a move that was roundly seen as positive across the city.

Couple this new sense of control and stability with a new strategy from master real  estate marketer Bob Rennie, and things are looking up.

Furthermore, if the NPA thinks that fighting the election the Olympic Village is a good strategy, once again, then I fully support them going down that path.

The origins of the Olympic Village fiasco goes back to how the developer was selected and how the parameters for completion were structured – two factors that are directly attributable to the NPA reign of error under former Mayor Sam Sullivan and former City Manager Judy Rogers.

The Olympic Village is a tough issue, but I would be interested in seeing what the chattering classes are saying come next summer, where the landscape of real estate purchasing and the ability for the City to recover all of its money could have improved exponentially.

Once again, Suzanne Anton as a Mayoral candidate, criticizing the Vision Council for decisions she and her colleagues made when her party was in power, is a dream scenario for Gregor Robertson and his team.

I think that polls like this one, or the one released over the weekend by Christy Clark supporters, need to be taken for what they are – a political tool designed to achieve a particular outcome.  In the case of Christy, showing that she is the only person who can win an election for the BC Liberals, and in the case of Justason, showing that the NPA is really in the game when it comes to political viability.

This isn’t to say that the poll is without merit.  It is only to suggest that different polls done by different pollsters are telling a very different story with very similar questions.

Maybe someone can explain exactly how that works within the realm of “random” samples.

So as I try and get a lesson about the ins and outs of proper polling, I am not going to pay too much attention to a poll that has produced results that seem to have come straight out of the wish list of Vision Vancouver’s top strategic minds.

Neither will they as they try to contain their expressions of glee, I suspect.

• News of Millennium’s Evelyn Development going also going into receivership continues to compound the evidence that the City of Vancouver made a foolhardy decision with regards to the Olympic Village.  The KPMG report released last year clearly shows how staff reworked the criteria matrix so that the third place Millennium came out on top in the end.  Like I have said before, I want to know from City staff, the former City Manager Judy Rogers, and people like former Mayor Sam Sullivan and his former Chief of Staff Daniel Fontaine, how a third place bid suddenly became the winning bid and also how Millennium’s financial position and payment capabilities were examined before the deal was signed.  Any notion that the bureaucracy at City Hall all of a sudden became “politicized” after Vision Vancouver took power should understand how ludicrous that assertion is after looking at the manner in which the Olympic Village developer was selected.

• Christy Clark will not only have Mike McDonald as a campaign manager as I reported over the weekend, but also Ken Boessenkool, a well-respected Stephen Harper organizer and strategist.  Christy’s campaign should really focus on trying to be the second choice of every other camp.  I feel as though she might be at a disadvantage in terms of numbers of sign-ups, meaning that she needs to sign up at least enough to make it past the first ballot and not fall off.  Then, if Christy can position herself as the only chance that the BC Liberals have of winning the next election (something that I, any other political observer with a half a brain can deduct), then maybe she can gather momentum and become the consensus choice for a membership wanting desperately to extend their reign in office.  It will be interesting to see how other camps respond to her impending announcement.

• Are Chief Jim Chu and Mayor Gregor Robertson being political and attributing responsibility for the RayCam community centre incident last week by calls like this and this?  Absolutely…and rightfully so.  Minister Kevin Falcon is correct when he says there is no system that can possibly account for the actions of everyone in society afflicted with a mental illness.  Yet it is very hard to argue with the 2008 VPD report on how the gaps in that very system are having a huge impact on police resources and effectiveness.  The study found that a staggering 31 per cent of all police calls involved at least one mentally ill person.  Now this isn’t about a hot potato of shifting blame.  Rather, this is about acknowledging that this provincial government has: 1) Eliminated the Mental Health Advocate’s office for BC  2) Eliminated the Minister of State for Mental Health 3) Slashed funding for mental health and addiction services (it isn’t all about housing, ladies and gents) and 4) Never followed through with their promise to provide municipalities with incentives to build new facilities to help people with mental illnesses and addictions.  I remember how Sam Sullivan’s alleged close relationships with the governments in Victoria and Ottawa were going to assist Vancouver is securing funding and support for initiatives.  We also saw how Sullivan was often completely ignored by his senior counterparts.  It is the job for the Mayor and the Chief of Police to advocate for cooperation and support with regards to mental illness, an issue which in some way touches all of us.

• I really wonder how Park Board Commissioner Stuart MacKinnon’s Green party feels about his ongoing alliance with the NPA’s Ian Robertson.  I say ongoing because this isn’t the first time that they have coalesced, and particularly going into an election year where attacking Vision will become an almost full-time affair, it is unlikely to be the last.  MacKinnon is a man that has a wealth of knowledge and passion about issues – particularly environmental and conservation – that put him ahead of a typical politician when it comes to interest and belief.  But he is also prone to making everything into a political drama, largely because he seems starved for attention and is likely worried about his re-election chances.  Political expediency and a little bit of coattail admiration is what makes me think that the Robertson flirtations might not be as respected or supported by his party faithful.

• Really, can you blame him?  The NDP is a fractured caucus with a bunch of ideologues and backstabbers that cannot put the fate of the party ahead of their own personal beefs or interests.  As I talked about last week, one of Vision Vancouver’s strongest assets is its party solidarity, particularly in contrast with the imploding of the NDP taking place at the moment.  First of all, he would be walking into a hornet’s nest full of many angry bees who have never forgiven Robertson for fleeing the provincial scene.  Second, he is poised for reelection in a municipal political landscape that is devoid of any significant opposition.  Robertson is a young man, and time is on his side…he is going nowhere until at least 2014-15, depending on whether the next go around is a 3 or 4-year term.

• David Lam was an amazing man, and the few times that I did come in contact with him during his days as Lieutenant Governor made a huge impact on me.  I distinctly remember a speech given at my high school where he spoke about diversity and multiculturalism, and how the word “tolerance” bothered him so much.  He said that merely “tolerating” someone in no way conotated respect or deference – it was almost a cop-out…a grin and bare it approach to accepting other people.  That is a speech I will never forget, and I remember how enthusiastically his words resonated in my head after he was done.  Lam was a generous and wise soul who made this province a better place.  He will be dearly missed by many.

• Speaking of remembering Canadian icons, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention my heartache for yesterday’s passing of Leslie Nielsen, who was one of my all-time favourites since I laughed my ass off as a 10-year old kid watching the Naked Gun in the theatre.  The best straight man in the history of cinema will also be sorely missed.  Here’s a montage to enjoy.

• Here’s a note to someone who might or might not know that this is directed to them: before you start levying anger at a group of people who are doing their jobs and playing effective politics, maybe you should examine your own state of affairs and realize that there is a lot of work to do from a public point of view, based on what was discovered over the weekend.  Ambushes aren’t exactly appreciated.

That’s all for now folks.  Have a great day.

• A great piece by my friend Ian Davey on the power of change being behind the Rob Ford incoming term.   Here is the key quote of relevance to the Vancouver civic political scene: “Governments change when voters decide they are incompetent and/or untrustworthy. Competence is the standard measure of good government and as such is the primary driver of change. Trust is a less tangible measure and untrustworthiness is principally a by-product of incompetent government.”  This is the storyline that the NPA is going to have try and write about Vision Vancouver, and I have a feeling that not only do they not have the individuals necessary to deliver such a message, but they also don’t have a record that lends itself to supporting such a tale.   To the candidates just nominated over the weekend, good luck…you have a long and difficult road ahead of you.

• Solving homelessness is clearly an issue area in which Mayor Gregor Robertson has predicated his entire Mayoralty on, and clearly something that he is in line for scrutiny over.  And to actually house the homeless population, we have a long way to go before we reach his goal of eliminating street homelessness by 2015.  That being said, on nights like the last few, I have to say that these HEAT shelters plus additional emergency shelter beds, which came about as a result of the City showing leadership and the Provincial government coming to the table with vital funding, have been a Godsend.  With an estimated 500 homeless sleeping on the streets of Vancouver, these 612 beds are a good start to keeping people during extreme temperatures.

• While the Vancouver School Board teeters on the verge of having their powers pulled by the Liberal government at any one time, the Vancouver Park Board and the ongoing legacy being built was on full display on Saturday night at COPE’s “Power of the Park Board” event.  The tradition of the Park Board is to set an independent course separate from City Council, and Saturday’s event, and the series of videos produced by Brent Granby, showed how much strength resides in the institution.  With the City facing $20 million in cuts, it will be interesting to see how the current incarnation of the Park Board fares in comparison to other City departments facing cutbacks.

• Speaking of cutbacks, Stuart MacKinnon’s commentary about this being the least progressive Park Board in history reeks of his typical political grandstanding style.  Is instituting fees for toddlers ideal?  Absolutely not.  But what MacKinnon’s fails to mention is that these kinds of fees are common in many neighbouring municipalities, and that Vancouver’s fee structure is still one of the lowest in the region.  Stuart is able to pontificate from the outside because he never has had to deal with the kinds of realities of budgeting that a government has to encounter.  I am predicting that the rumoured $2 million in cuts will be significantly less in the end.  But regardless, to take a position that there should be no more cuts in spite of other vital services feeling the pinch, MacKinnon clearly shows that he is more comfortable sitting and lobbing criticism in opposition than making the tough decisions necessary when you are elected to lead by the people.  If times are tough, then cuts across the board are realistic and responsible.  How the Vision Vancouver caucus manages and fights to mitigate these cuts, however, is the way in which they should be judged on their performance – NOT by adopting ridiculous and unworkable positions as Stuart seems to suggest.

• Gregor Robertson’s commentary on the Olympic Village being put into receivership demonstrates that the City is now in a position of strength to recover the money lent to the Malek brothers, and at the very minimum break even on this project.  Real estate marketing guru Bob Rennie is preaching an approach of patience, while commentators like Bob Ransford – Peter Ladner’s former campaign manager – has written about how the decisions made by former City Manager Judy Rogers were clearly not in the taxpayers’ interest.  This is far from a perfect situation, but Robertson’s vision to take over the financing of the project has now allowed the City to have the maximum amount of control to now roll out the sales and loan recovery in the most prudent and lucrative way possible.  Here is a nugget from a Jeff Lee article over the weekend that is very telling: ”
  The carrying costs to the city are far less than the amounts the now-ousted owners of the former Olympic athletes’ village had to pay, the city said Thursday. That’s because the bank interest rate the city pays is less than half the rate it was charging Millennium Developments.”  Vancouverites should feel a lot more relieved now that there is a little stability being inserted into the mess created by the NPA.

• Melissa De Genova isn’t the only candidate for the Park Board in next year’s election that emerged over the weekend.  Brent Granby, who is the President of the West End Residents Association, also announced that he too will be running.  One only knows if Loretta Woodcock will run for fourth term for COPE (if I was to guess, I would say that scenario is unlikely), but Granby will be a great candidate for the party should they be left without an incumbent next year.

• Not to look a gift horse in the mouth, but is anyone else shocked that being designated a “Cultural Capital” of Canada only carries a federal contribution of $1.75 million?  Regardless, the tours of city institutions that the public doesn’t get to see seems cheap and intriguing, and I am sure that City staff will live up to the legacy they left during the Olympics, which invigourated the civic pride and involvement from residents.  Rest assured, though, that the fun will be had by the City ponying up $7 million to celebrate Vancouver’s 125th birthday, not by the meagre contribution of the federal government.  Sign of  times I guess.

That’s all for now folks.  Enjoy the crisp and frosty air…it is beautiful to breathe in.

• I have already posted my reaction to Michael Geller’s comments in the Globe last week – comments that have now inspired an opinion piece in Saturday’s Vancouver Sun by former Vision City Councillor and Mayoral candidate Jim Green, a rebuttal from Geller, and a number of follow-up reactions.  From my point of view, here is the key message that I want to get across to Mr. Geller:  While your history and personality do not seem of the character of someone who has a prejudice against the poor people, your choice of words to describe your position are offensive – plain and simple:  “If you think of the population as divided into five groups on a social and economic basis –As, Bs, Cs, Ds, Es, – when you start putting together the As and the Es, there is the potential for people to not get along.  If you’re going to mix people, it should be As, Bs and Cs together or Cs, Ds and Es.”  With all due respect Michael, no matter how you might have referred to people at CMHC at one time, the connotations of such classifications are very clear.  How does an “A” on a report card compare to an “E”?  It isn’t your theory that making all of the units market housing might have a positive impact on sales so much as it is how you referred to people – that is what has rubbed so many, including myself, the wrong way.  Furthermore, any of your assertions that the the Ds and Es will include the mentally ill and drug addicted clientele is false and misleading fear mongering, because you are very aware that this has never been a part of the plan for social housing, which has always been directed toward low income families and seniors.  I will be listening to CKNW at 9am this morning to hear Geller and Green have a debate…it should be very interesting.

• Over the weekend I received a call from a friend who said that he had been approached by several within the NPA fold to run for a spot on Council.  This young, South Asian gent has ample previous political experience (including putting his name on a ballot), and had been fed the line that it was important for the party to have some ethnic representation amongst the candidates that come forward.  I asked him if he knew who he was speaking to, and he said no because he hadn’t been following municipal politics that closely.  After explaining how the folks that approached him would likely enjoy stringing me up and lynching me, I also gave him context about the offer.  The NPA is desperate to attract a dynamic, diverse and fresh slate of candidates that hopefully will have a little star power thrown into the mix.  My friend fits the bill in a few respects, but ultimately I told him that as a South Asian male running for Council under the NPA banner, he was going to have a very steep political hill to climb to get elected (spoken from personal experience with my involvement in the last election).  It is funny that certain NPA sources tell me how people are approaching them everyday with regards to candidacy, while others outside of the party’s sphere of spin pass along stories of how they are beating the bushes trying to find those brave souls that are willing to compromise their livelihoods, reputations and sense of hope within politics to be associated with the moribund NPA.

• I found his insight on Suzanne Anton’s flip-flop useful, considering his links to the NPA are obviously far more pronounced than mine, and my sources withing that fold are few and far between.  But the man also detailed how he tried attacking a cyclist with a baseball bat, and how he and his children laughed about running that same cyclist off the road with his car a few days later.  Alex, I get your desire to protect your kids at all costs.  I also understand about being enraged that someone would scare your children and speak that way in front of them.  But I really think that you need help…professional help.  I strongly encourage you to look into it as soon as possible.

• Ian, I’m with you on Montreal being way ahead of us when it comes to biking infrastructure.  And, I also would LOVE to see a similar system to BIXI in this city.  In fact, it looks as though Toronto might be headed in the same direction (although with this wacko about to take the reins at the Mayor’s office, who knows what will happen).  But as someone who was in Montreal just last month, let me also point out that the cost of the program is also a source of controversy for Montreal City Hall (yes, I know that they have more than enough these days).  I am desperately looking for statistics to back this up, but I distinctly remember listening to a radio program which detailed how the BIXI program was millions of dollars in the red on an annual basis.  So, as much as I would love 5000 bikes to line our streets for people to use, I also want it to be cost effective and something that will not be a huge drain on the taxpayer.

• A nice theory about how taking a loss on the Olympic Village is just “business.”  But this isn’t about the city protecting its ass to cover up for politicians, as the Province is describing.  The City stepped in as the lender because it had to – the Olympics were on the way, and there was no room for some New York financier in trouble of its own to be the one who provided the necessary funds for completion.  Thus, if the city is going to give incentives like tax breaks and avoidance of maintenance fees, so be it.  This is about recovering our dollars, and that is the motivation.

• It’s the little label that could, which truly became a global phenomenon at many points over the past 25 years.  I raise a glass to Terry McBride, because Nettwerk is a Vancouver success story with some amazing musical triumphs (Lilith Fair being one).

• I have gone hard at these guys in the past, but I think that their response to the Mayor’s West End Advisory Committee is classy and encouraging.  Like WEN correctly points out, “Much misinformation has been circulating about rezonings in the West End. We hope this Committee will seek out all the key facts, and share everything openly with the public in a timely way.”  I couldn’t agree more.

OK, off to listen to Geller and Green go at it.  I might check back in after if there is anything of significance to comment on.