With the way that the NPA has planned out their candidate selection process, the above signs have little to do with the reality of the current political climate in Vancouver.
For the first time in years, it seems as though the NPA is showing signs of life by organizing a number of events for the fall. A pub night, followed by a fundraiser with former NPA Mayors as the main attraction, moving onto a public forum are all being circled on the calendars of the remaining fifty members of the party who bother to show up to events.
All of these events are designed to create the perception of momentum as the party/association/political entity moves towards November 20th, when the party intends to nominate its candidates for next year’s election.
Here, however, is why these series of events are unlikely to divert attention away from the lacklustre results that that nomination meeting is likely to produce.
The NPA has no one that has even remotely showed interest in running for their Mayoral nomination.
In spite of rumours about SUCCESS CEO Tung Chan or the ridiculous idea of Sam Sullivan returning to lead the party that deposed of him unceremoniously when he was already the Mayor, no one except for lone NPA Councillor Suzanne Anton has really shown any interest in taking up the mantle.
The person running for Mayor is the anchor that inspires candidates to put their name forward by providing some coattails in which to ride upon.
In 2008, Vision Vancouver’s Mayoral nomination attracted upwards of 6,000 people to come out and vote for either Gregor Robertson, Allan DeGenova, or Raymond Louie. First, that race was a boon to interest in the party, as it created an excitement an buzz not only about the next election, but before that the people who were showing interest in throwing their hat into the ring to carry the party banner.
Gregor Robertson turned into a candidate with momentum, broad appeal, and a solid group of advisors and backers around him that convinced many names to come out of the woodwork to represent Vision Vancouver as a candidate.
I of course managed the campaign of Kashmir Dhaliwal, who had to have a runoff with community activist David Eby for the final Council nomination. It was very tight, it was a lot of work, and it was extremely exciting, and after Dhaliwal won that last spot, there was a level of optimism behind the name of Gregor Robertson that propelled the entire Vision campaign forward.
On the flip side, you now have a nomination meeting set for the NPA that is without any kind identifiable leadership when it comes to an attraction for quality candidates, and little to no party strength in which to instill confidence in actually making into the top 10 in next year’s election.
This is a fatal error by the NPA, and one done due to desperation.
The thinking, from what my NPA sources tell me, is that once the party has names that the media and the public can latch onto, interest will grow in the organization’s electoral prospects.
But the NPA has clearly forgotten which come first in the realm of municipal politics, particularly when it comes to the current state of affairs in Vancouver.
Say what you will about Gregor Robertson, but the man is still a force to be reckoned with, and as Charlie Smith acknowledges at the end of his above-linked recruit Sam Sullivan piece, “[h]e would probably still lose the election to Robertson.”
And that is the bottom line when it comes to someone’s contemplation about stepping forward to challenge the current Mayor.
Why would a name of significance and profile give up what most likely a hell of a lot more money in their current role, as well as risk their political and social capital in a race that they are unlikely to be able to win?
The reality is that most wouldn’t.
And without a strong Mayoral anchor, the NPA is unlikely to get a electable group of candidates, which in essence seals the fate of the party’s hopes a full year before the next election.
Maybe the NPA brass see the logic in this decision, but I certainly cannot.
Politics and the desire to run for office is often propelled by a combination of ego, hope and a desire to initiate change.
Unfortunately for the NPA, they are a long way off from being able to offer potential candidates viability with any of these considerations.
But that’s the NPA…doing things bass ackwards, as per usual.
